Friday, May 2, 2014
Does age affect the Fantasy RB you draft?
Last month, ESPN posted an article about the significant decline in RB production after age 27.
Here is the chart ESPN created showing age vs. production:
As a result, I decided to take a look at my Top 30 Fantasy RBs for 2014 and their age. Here is the chart that I created:
Le'Veon Bell and Giovani Bernard are the babies of the group at only 22 years old while two men with the last name Jackson (Steven and Fred) are the senior citizens of the group. This poses an interesting question. How much does age affect who you draft in the upcoming fantasy season? Adrian Peterson is at the age where his production might start slipping according to statistical trends, but would you avoid him for that reason or draft someone younger? Matt Forte, Marshawn Lynch and Arian Foster will all be 28 years old at the start of the regular season. Would you rather have young and fresh RB like Eddie Lacy or Montee Ball, who are still unproven, instead of an established RB like Forte, Lynch or Foster? I think that age does play an important part of who you draft, but some players are too dominant to pass over just because their age. I wouldn't pass over AP or Matt Forte for anyone except Jamaal Charles and LeSean McCoy. Marshawn Lynch and Arian Foster are not as elite, so I would be more likely to consider taking a young Eddie Lacy or Montee Ball over them.
On the flip side, some of the older players present you with a value pick. People may avoid them at all costs because of their age. As a result, you may be able to get some steals in the later rounds of the draft. Case in point, Fred Jackson had over 1,200 yards (rushing and receiving) and 10 TDs last season. No one drafted him early because everyone thought CJ Spiller was going to be "the guy". In conclusion, age is definitely something to consider when drafting but it should not be the ultimate decision maker.
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