Wide Receivers with 100+ Yard Games

This chart brings up a couple of discussion points for the upcoming fantasy season:

1. This is one of the reasons why Calvin Johnson will be the #1 WR off the board in every draft.
2. Josh Gordon will not be playing this season so we don't need to talk about him.
3. Two veteran players had 6 games with 100+ receiving yards (Andre Johnson and Brandon Marshall). These players are very consistent and will produce for you if you draft them. They are a safe pick, but you know what you are going to get from them.
4. AJ Green has a new offensive coordinator in Hue Jackson. Jackson likes to emphasize a running game so will this hurt the production of AJ Green? I think his numbers will be down a little from last season, but he is still too good to avoid.
5. Julio Jones didn't make the list, but he did have three 100+ yard games in only five games before he got hurt. Where would he have been on this chart if he was healthy all year? He could be a great value pickup in your draft because he will drop lower due to injury concern. As of now, all reports say that Julio is good to go and has no lingering issues from his foot.
6. I like all of the players on the chart that recorded five 100+ yard games except for Eric Decker. Simply put, whether it's Vick or Smith at QB for the Jets, their offense will not be nearly as effective as the Broncos. As a result, I expect an inconsistent and disappointing year from Decker.
7. Dez Bryant is ranked as a Top 3-5 WR in almost every fantasy league. Although he doesn't have as many yards as other receivers, he was heavily involved in the red zone, scoring 13 TDs. That ranks 2nd out of all WR from last season.

Does age affect the Fantasy RB you draft?

Last month, ESPN posted an article about the significant decline in RB production after age 27. Here is the chart ESPN created showing age vs. production:

As a result, I decided to take a look at my Top 30 Fantasy RBs for 2014 and their age. Here is the chart that I created:

Le'Veon Bell and Giovani Bernard are the babies of the group at only 22 years old while two men with the last name Jackson (Steven and Fred) are the senior citizens of the group. This poses an interesting question. How much does age affect who you draft in the upcoming fantasy season? Adrian Peterson is at the age where his production might start slipping according to statistical trends, but would you avoid him for that reason or draft someone younger? Matt Forte, Marshawn Lynch and Arian Foster will all be 28 years old at the start of the regular season. Would you rather have young and fresh RB like Eddie Lacy or Montee Ball, who are still unproven, instead of an established RB like Forte, Lynch or Foster? I think that age does play an important part of who you draft, but some players are too dominant to pass over just because their age. I wouldn't pass over AP or Matt Forte for anyone except Jamaal Charles and LeSean McCoy. Marshawn Lynch and Arian Foster are not as elite, so I would be more likely to consider taking a young Eddie Lacy or Montee Ball over them. On the flip side, some of the older players present you with a value pick. People may avoid them at all costs because of their age. As a result, you may be able to get some steals in the later rounds of the draft. Case in point, Fred Jackson had over 1,200 yards (rushing and receiving) and 10 TDs last season. No one drafted him early because everyone thought CJ Spiller was going to be "the guy". In conclusion, age is definitely something to consider when drafting but it should not be the ultimate decision maker.

Which Rookie QB would you most likely draft in your fantasy football league w/ a late round pick?

Which Rookie QB would you most likely draft in your fantasy football league w/ a late round pick?
	Johnny Manziel
	Blake Bortles
	Teddy Bridgewater
	Derek Carr
	Other
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Draft Brandon Marshall or Alshon Jeffrey?

Alshon Jeffrey had more receiving yards than Brandon Marshall in 2013. 

Brandon Marshall had the most receiving yards in 9 games and Alshon Jeffrey had the most receiving yards in 7 games. 

Brandon Marshall had more targets, receptions and TD's than Alshon Jeffrey in 2013. 

Brandon Marshall will be entering his 9th season in the NFL and Alshon Jeffrey will be entering his 3rd season. Although Marshall beat out Jeffrey in all categories except for total receiving yards, I'm drafting Jeffrey before Marshall this year. There are three reasons:
1. The dramatic improvement from Jeffrey's rookie year to 2nd year.
2. Jeffrey is much younger and more athletic
3. The numbers last season weren't that significantly different so I'm going with the guy who I think has the higher ceiling and bigger playmaking ability.

Will Matt Forte be a Top 3 Fantasy RB in 2014?

Matt Forte is coming off of a career year after setting highs in both rushing and receiving yards. He is currently ranked as the 4th best fantasy RB heading into the 2014 season Will another year in Trestman's offense move him ahead of Jamaal Charles, LeSean McCoy and Adrian Peterson? I believe that he has the skill set & also is in the right system to be a Top 3 fantasy RB this season (especially in PPR leagues). Would I draft him over the "Big 3" (Charles, McCoy or Peterson)? No, but he would be my next pick off of the draft board and I wouldn't be surprised if he has a better statistical season than one of "Big 3".

Adrian Peterson, Jamaal Charles or LeSean McCoy at #1?

 

 

The charts below break down their 2013 stats as well as their rushing yardage over that past 4 seasons:

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Early Fantasy TE Rankings

FantFoot.com's Early Top 20 Fantasy TE Rankings for 2014:
(As of 4/10/2014)

1. Jimmy Graham
2. Julius Thomas
3. Vernon Davis
4. Greg Olsen
5. Rob Gronkowski
6. Dennis Pitta
7. Jordan Cameron
8. Jordan Reed
9. Jason Witten
10. Charles Clay
11. Zach Ertz
12. Antonio Gates
13. Martellus Bennett
14. Garrett Graham
15. Coby Fleener
16. Lardarius Green
17. Tyler Eifert
18. Delanie Walker
19. Kyle Rudolph
20. Jared Cook

Early Fantasy WR Rankings

FantFoot.com's Early Top 30 Fantasy WR Rankings for 2014:
(As of 4/9/2014)

11. Calvin Johnson

22. Demaryius Thomas

33. Josh Gordon

44. Dez Bryant

55. AJ Green

66. Brandon Marshall

77. Julio Jones

88. Antonio Brown

99. Alshon Jeffrey

110.   Jordy Nelson

111.   Randall Cobb

112.   Keenan Allen

113.   Pierre Garcon

114.   Vincent Jackson

115.   Andre Johnson

116.   DeSean Jackson

117.   Victor Cruz

118.   Julian Edelman

119.   Larry Fitzgerald

220.   Cordarrelle Patterson

221.   Wes Welker

222.   Michael Crabtree

223.   Roddy White

224.   Percy Harvin

225.   Torrey Smith

226.   Reggie Wayne

227.   Marques Colston

228.   Anquan Boldin

229.   Jeremy Maclin

330.   T.Y. Hilton

Offseason Risers and Fallers

Risers

RG3- The signing of DeSean Jackson really opens up the Redskins offense. RG3 has numerous receiving threats with Jackson, Garcon and Reed. Also, Jay Gruden helped make Andy Dalton look good last year, so the sky is the limit for RG3 this season. I expect him to have numbers similar to his rookie season or even better.

Alfred Morris- See above. With the passing game in sync, Alfred Morris will have a lot more space to run. I expect him to "bulldoze" defenses this year and have many scoring opportunities.

Ben Tate- Tate finally breaks out of the "handcuff" role. I believe that the Browns offense will be pretty good this year as long as they pick up a QB in the draft. As long as Tate stays healthy, he will be a Top 10 RB in fantasy this year.

Greg Olsen- When Greg Olsen is the biggest receiving threat in Carolina, there is a problem. Nothing against Olsen because he is a good tight end, but their offense in lacking receiving options. As a result, I think Newton will look to Olsen early and often this year. Solid TE1.

Demaryius Thomas- This is a bold statement, but I expect Demaryius to be the number one WR in fantasy football this year. With Decker in New York, he will have even more scoring opportunities than last year. Look for the best QB in the NFL to look his way a lot in 2014. Bigger numbers coming!

Joe Flacco- The Ravens offense struggled in 2013 because of the lack of run game and Torrey Smith being the only receiving threat. Flacco has Pitta back healthy plus the newly signed Steve Smith and Owen Daniels. Also, Marlon Brown has a year under his belt and I look for him to improve. Flacco has plenty of receiving options and threats in 2014. Look for him to have a nice year. Could be a great value pick in late rounds.


Fallers

Cam Newton- All of the panthers wide receivers from last year signed with other teams. They replaced them with Jerricho Cotchery, Tiquan Underwood and Jason Avant. Need I say more?

Nick Foles- The loss of DeSean Jackson really hurts his value. Jackson really helped stretch the field for the Eagles. Although I don't expect Foles to have a horrible season, I don't think he will come close to his numbers from last season.

Maurice Jones-Drew- He is another year older past his prime and is now playing for the Raiders. He will most likely be in a timeshare or limited role with Darren McFadden as the lead back.  As a result, I would avoid him at all costs. Not to mention, the Raiders offense is a little (or a lot) dysfunctional.

Knowshon Moreno- Moreno is a good back, but Peyton and the Broncos definitely helped inflate his stats. I think Moreno will struggle in Miami because of their poor offensive play. Also, Moreno has had a history of injuries, which is a worry for me.

Ray Rice- He burned me last year in fantasy. Maybe I am still bitter about that, but I will never draft him again. Especially with all of the off field issues, Rice's best days are behind him. He may miss games this year due to all of his legal issues too. Stay away at all costs!

Fantasy Football Draft Order Pick'em Challenge

Directions: Pick a winner below for each sporting event. The pick is due by 11:59pm on the day before the event occurs, unless it is otherwise noted. If you do not make a pick before the due date, you automatically get zero points for that event. For each correct pick, you will receive 10 points and for each incorrect pick you will receive zero points. At the conclusion of the Pick ‘em Challenge, the person with the most points gets to pick their draft spot. The person with the second most points gets to pick their draft spot and so on. In the event of a tie, see the tiebreaker below.

1. Men's NCAA Basketball Champion (April 7, 2014)

2. Women's NCAA Basketball Champion (April 8, 2014)

3. NCAA Frozen Four Men’s Hockey Champion (April 12, 2014)

4. Winner of the Masters Golf Tournament (April 13, 2014) *Pick due by April 12 @ 11:59pm

5. Winner of  Boston Red Sox vs. New York Yankees (April 22, 2014)

6. Kentucky Derby Winner (May 3, 2014)

7. First Player taken in NFL Draft (May 8, 2014)

8. Winner of the Sprint NASCAR All-Star Race (May 17, 2014)

9. UEFA Champions League Final Winner (May 24, 2014)

10.   The Preakness Winner (May 17, 2014)

11.   NBA Finals Champion (Begins June 5, 2014) *Pick team by June 4 @11:59pm

12.   Stanley Cup Finals (Begins Mid-June, exact start date) TBD

13.   Belmont Stakes Winner (June 14, 2014)

14.   Winner of US Open Golf Tournament (June 15, 2014) *Pick due by June 14 @ 11:59pm

15.   Women’s Wimbledon Singles Champion (July 5, 2014)

16.   Men’s Wimbledon Singles Champion (July 6, 2014)

17.   FIFA World Cup Champion (July 13, 2014)

18.   Home Run Derby Winner (July 14, 2014)

19.   MLB All-Star Game Winner (July 15, 2014)

20.   Winner of The British Open (July 20, 2014) *Pick due by July 19, 2014

Tiebreaker: In the event of a tie, those tied will participate in a punt, pass and kick challenge. The participant who records the overall longest distance wins the tiebreaker. 

*Feel free to adapt and modify to make it work for your fantasy football league. Good luck and happy picking!

Year of the Sophomore Running Back

This year I expect a great deal of fantasy success if you have a sophomore running back on your roster. Looking back at the 2013 NFL draft, there was a lot of talented running backs that got drafted. Here is how it went down:

Giovani Bernard (2nd Round, 37th overall)
Le'Veon Bell (2nd Round, 48th overall)
Montee Ball (2nd Round, 58th overall)
Eddie Lacy (2nd Round, 61st overall)
Knile Davis (3rd Round, 96th overall)
Zac Stacy (5th Round, 160th overall)
Andre Ellington (6th Round, 187th overall)

All of these guys made an impact during their rookie season and have the potential to be a RB1 or RB2 on your fantasy squad this year (with the exception of Knile Davis as a handcuff). Let's take a look at each individual player:

Giovani Bernard- He lost a lot of touches to Green-Ellis his rookie year, but his role expanded as the season continued. Every time he touches the ball, there is excitement so I think he will get the ball a lot more this season. If you're in a PPR league, I think he will be a solid RB1, getting you a lot of points by catching balls out of the backfield.

Le'Veon Bell- If Le'Veon didn't miss the first three games of the season, he probably would have gotten close to or gone over 1,000 yards and 10 touchdowns. Pittsburgh loves to pound the ball and they will continue to feed him in 2014. Le'Veon had double digit carries in all of his games and scored a touchdown in four out of his last five games. Even with the signing of Blount, I think Bell will get the bulk of carries and goal line touches. He also had 45 catches on the season so he has the ability to get you some more points, especially in PPR leagues. I would draft him after Lacy and Ball, but ahead of Bernard and Stacy.

Monte Ball- With Knowshon Moreno in Miami, the position is Montee Ball's for the taking. Ball had some fumbling issues in the beginning of the season, but only lost one fumble after the 3rd game of the season. I think Ball is a more talented back than Moreno, so I wouldn't be surprised if he surpassed Moreno's stats from last season. There will be plenty of scoring opportunities with this offense and he has the ability to catch some passes out of the backfield. I would draft him right after Eddie Lacy goes off the board.

Eddie Lacy- He was a workhorse last year for the Packers getting double digit carries in all games he played in except for one. Lacy won't catch many passes, but he is on an offense that will have plenty of scoring opportunities. Look for lacy to get 20 carries/game and a minimum of 10 touchdowns. I would draft Lacy ahead of all sophomore running backs and an aging Marshawn Lynch, but behind Charles, McCoy, Peterson, and Forte.

Knile Davis- Davis spent majority of the season riding in the back seat of Jamaal's car. He finally got to drive it in the final week of the regular season, showing off his skills, gaining 81 yards and scoring 2 TD's. He also had a decent game against the Colts in the first round of the playoffs, but ended up fracturing his fibula. Davis should be ready to go for next season and although he is talented, he is merely a handcuff to Jamaal Charles.

Zac Stacy- He also became his team's workhorse once he was discovered in Week 3. Although his yards per carry were 3.9 on the season, there is no doubt that he will get plenty of work in 2014. The offense should improve with Sam Bradford back, which will help open up some space for Stacy. I think he will be a solid RB2 with the potential to be a RB1. I would draft him behind all of the sophomore running backs in this blog except Ellington and Davis.

Andre Ellington- Due to Ellington's size and durability issues, the Cardinals have been holding back the reins on this talented back. He averaged 5.5 yards per carry, but only got 118 carries on the season. I see value in Ellington in 2014 because he makes the best of his limited touches, but his value diminishes because the Cardinals don't plan on using him as an every-down featured back. He will probably lose short-yardage and goal-line touches as well, which really puts a damper on his fantasy potential. I would take Ellington after all of the sophomore running backs listed in this blog except for Knile Davis.

Early Fantasy RB Rankings

FantFoot.com's Early Top 25 Fantasy RB Rankings for 2014:
(As of 4/2/2014)

1. Jamaal Charles
2. LeSean McCoy
3. Adrian Peterson
4. Matt Forte
5. Eddie Lacy
6. Montee Ball
7. Marshawn Lynch
8. Le'Veon Bell
9. DeMarco Murray
10. Giovani Bernard
11. Alfred Morris
12. Doug Martin
13. Zac Stacy
14. Arian Foster
15. Frank Gore
16. Reggie Bush
17. CJ Spiller
18. Ben Tate
19. Ryan Mathews
20. Rashad Jennings
21. Shane Vereen
22. Andre Ellington
23. Knowshon Moreno
24. Steven Jackson
25. Chris Johnson

Full rankings coming soon! Check back often for more early season rankings in all positions.

Early Fantasy QB Rankings

FantFoot.com's Early Top 10 Fantasy QB Rankings for 2014:
(As of 4/1/2014)

1. P. Manning
2. A. Rodgers
3. D. Brees
4. M. Stafford
5. A. Luck
6. C. Newton
7. T. Brady
8. N. Foles
9. R. Griffin III
10. M. Ryan

Full rankings coming soon! Check back often for more early season rankings in all positions.

Fantasy Studs and Duds: WR Edition

STUD - Cordarrelle Patterson- 

Patterson had a pretty quiet start to his rookie season, but came on strong at the end of the year. In his final 5 games, Patterson scored at least one touchdown in every game (6 total). Patterson is a natural playmaker that is always a home run threat. Not only does he catch passes, but he can get you points running the ball and returning kicks too. Now that he has a year under his belt, look for Patterson to breakout and start the 2014 season the way he ended last season.


DUD - Wes Welker- 

I love Wes Welker, but I am not high on him in 2014. Welker had a great start to the 2013 season, scoring 8 touchdowns in the first 6 games. After that, Welker only had 2 touchdowns for the remainder of the regular season and missed the final 3 games due to a concussion. There are 2 main reasons why I am staying away from Welker for the upcoming season:
1. Concussions. He is a small guy and is prone to taking some big hits. With his history of concussions, he could be out multiple games or even the season if he gets any more.
2. Inconsistency. Even with Decker gone, there are still too many weapons in Denver. It will be hard for Welker to be consistent and rack up the touchdowns with Demaryius Thomas, Julius Thomas and Montee Ball stealing red zone opportunities.

Fantasy Studs and Duds: RB Edition

STUD - Giovani Bernard- 

Coming into his 2nd year with Hue Jackson as the new offensive coordinator, Gio is destined for major success in 2014. The Law Firm is another year older and Gio is too talented to not utilize him often on the field. Bernard had a respectable rookie year, but was not on the field enough to be your fantasy bell cow. You can bet Bernard will hold the reins to the Bengals offense in 2014. Top 5 RB in PPR leagues.


DUD - Knowshon Moreno- 

Although Moreno had a career year, there are too many risks involved with him for the 2014 season. I'm staying away from Moreno because of the trifecta: 1. Inflated numbers last year thanks to Peyton. 2. Tannehill and the Dolphins offense ranked 26th in the league in rush yards per game last year. 3. Injury concerns (tore acl in 2011, arthroscopic knee surgery in 2012 and ankle/rib injuries in 2013). Don't be surprised if he doesn't break 1,000 yards in 2014.